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Now you aggregate those across investors using the share of the equity market that each of them holds, and that’s the flow into the stock market. The elasticity that you get out of standard theory is order of magnitude of 10, or 20, okay. That means that if you buy 20% of the stock market, prices would move by just 1%.

Their demand forecasts future price soak other investor’s demand. It could be the case that maybe some hedge funds are very good at forecasting flows that are coming from pension funds in the future. While others drop out, because maybe they think that demand is going to go down, or they got excited about some stock, and then that’s mean reverting.

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  • That’s, I think one upside is that there’s a lot of questions involving quantities, and that’s why it’s useful to develop this.
  • Now, I have three groups of exactly the same size.
  • Currently, a $300 million inland container depot in northern Vietnam is being funded by the World Bank.
  • Estimate the model for the whole world minus the US.

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Now, if you’re a pure index fund, the elasticity that you provide to the market is zero. Because if GameStop goes up by a factor of 10, you just hold on, a pure market weight as an investor. As a result, if you move money from the active to passive funds, or to various – it’s also makes things potentially more inelastic.

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Top 5 AI Stocks in 2023.

Posted: Tue, 13 Jun 2023 07:00:00 GMT [source]

I think lots of people have expressed this idea that okay, it’s very hard to time markets. There’s lots of uncertainty that comes with it. Faced with that uncertainty, the best thing you can do is you just hold a share portfolio. Well, there’s a flip side to that, and the flip side is that markets become very inelastic.

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It’s not the case that money systematically moved from more informed to less informed institutions to the other type. It’s more of a mixed result in the sense that impact on valuations, but in terms of the connection between evaluations and future fundamentals, there’s less of a connection there. What you find is that there’s a non-trivial impact on valuations.

  • The elasticity of Apple and Tesla is much lower than of some very small biotech firm.
  • The elasticity that you get out of standard theory is order of magnitude of 10, or 20, okay.
  • I’m going to make a distinction and what I’m saying between large and smaller institutions.
  • We’re just trying to approach it from a different angle by really starting at the industrial level and bringing a whole lot of new data to make markets more understandable.
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What we’ve focused on is on quarterly price impact. It’s really hard to measure this in one quarter. If you go up to four quarters, then the interval widens so much that there’s not all that much you can say after one year.

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They’re not the ones that come in very aggressively. Estimate the model for the whole world minus the US. Now, predict what do investors want to hold of you as assets?

If you could forecast that demand, then that can help you to forecast future returns. That only works in inelastic market, because otherwise, the price impact of any individual investment would be very, very small. In terms of, is there something you can do very differently, just because you now know that markets are inelastic, the answer is not so much.

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In terms of how much their own flows are going to move back the cross-section of prices, the answer is going to be very little. That goes back to the conversation we had, for instance, 2008, they just scaled down all stocks in proportion to the market cap. That’s going to have a pretty even effect on prices. The part that excites us is that that because it’s at the investor level, you can really get into a – those investors who did very good at forecasting future fundamentals, those investors seem to be early on in, let’s say, trading momentum.

Bull or bear, these charts will tell you! – ThinkMarkets

Bull or bear, these charts will tell you!.

Posted: Thu, 08 Jun 2023 07:00:00 GMT [source]

At the level of the aggregate stock market, then, if you just hold on to the market weights of everything, you provide no elasticity, whatsoever, if you’re just a buy and hold investor. If you think about the level of the aggregate stock market, and you think about asset classes, the more common policy is to hold light fixtures. Then you provide some elasticity, but it’s very low. That was like, you invest in extending stocks, elasticity is 0.4. One of the things that we’ve looked at is, suppose that investors would get in our outflows, how much would different types of investors move prices?